It has been a long time since Republicans won a statewide race in Virginia. In fact, the last time was in 2009, but there have been cases where it was close. However, there’s a possibility this year is different.
This month, an internal Republican Governors Association poll has put the GOP on the brink of winning a statewide race in Virginia for the first time since 2009. Glenn Youngkin is the Republican gubernatorial candidate for the 2021 election.
He was losing to his Democrat rival Terry McAuliffe by 11 points in a Republican Governors Association (RGA) polling conducted in May.
NEW: @GlennYoungkin led @TerryMcAuliffe in internal #VAGOV polling for @GOPGovs conducted early this month. Republicans say #s look so good, they could be on verge of a total sweep. https://t.co/xgGjyxt1LI @dcexaminer
— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) October 11, 2021
However, Youngkin closed the gap for the first time and edged his major opponent by three percentage points. The polls also say the Republican Party could be on the brink of winning the contests for attorney general, lieutenant governor, and possibly take back the Virginia General Assembly.
Is the Poll Reliable?
You might be reading this and wondering why an internal Republican poll is reliable…or how it’s possible for the GOP to win in a blue state or a state that gave Biden a 10-point lead over Trump in 2020. Republicans reviewing the data for the polls say Biden is the major cause for this because of his poor job approval ratings.
Yet, the advisers of Glenn Youngkin said the Democrat’s candidate, McAuliffe, and the GOP nominee deserve great credit for the potential collapse of the Democrat Party in the state.
Aside from that, Youngkin’s campaign senior strategist, Jeff Roe, said McAuliffe is also running against a candidate not on the ballot. This because the Democrat Party’s candidate is trying to convince voters that Youngkin is a Donald Trump clone.
Spokesman of the Democratic Governors Association, David Turner, also said the illusion the state of Virginia has become a blue state was not adopted by Democrats working in Virginia.
He further added the electoral race could fall anywhere; Democrats should be treating the race as a close one because it is very tight. From the words of David Turner, we can see the RGA poll is spot-on.
In the RGA’s recent poll, Youngkin was doing really well in major battlegrounds. He had 43% in the Northern Virginia region and 53% in the Richmond suburbs of Chesterfield. If these numbers hold, then it will be difficult for McAuliffe to win statewide.
Besides, Biden is struggling with Independents statewide. 61% of Independents in Virginia do not have a favorable view of the president; as we know, this demographic is vital for whoever wants to win in the state.
Terry McAuliffe: Joe Biden "is unpopular today unfortunately here in Virginia." pic.twitter.com/QOMAWRBi2A
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 5, 2021
Warning For Republicans
Republicans and conservatives might want to become excited by the RGA poll. However, they should remember it is still an internal poll.
Although past events have shown the poll can be relied upon, it doesn’t show the true picture. It has happened in the past before (Romney 2012). If the Republican Party wins big in Virginia next month, it could be the perfect springboard to recapture the General Assembly in 2022.