In the last few months, China has been threatening to invade and take over Taiwan. However, recent events between Russia and Ukraine will be a major deterrent for China.
When Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, they thought it would be a ‘walk in the park.’ However, they were wrong, as Russia has faced unprecedented resistance from the people of Ukraine.
Lessons to Be Learned?
Russia’s media organizations said the war on Ukraine would be over before it started. Putin believed Ukraine would just bend to Russia’s superior power.
Yet, Russia’s obvious military advantage has been of no use. Just recently, the Russian military had to flee an airbase in Kyiv, due to heavy resistance by the Ukrainian military.
With all this in mind, China will have no choice but to take a calculative move in its interest in Taiwan.
Again, even though Taiwan is a small country like Ukraine and China is a superpower, invading Taiwan could also be tricky.
— Taiwan News (@24_7_World_News) April 3, 2022
Moreover, aside from the uncertainty of quick victory, China will be wary of being in the bad books of the world.
Aside from Russia doing badly on the military front in Ukraine, sanctions from countries across the globe are also dealing with Russia seriously.
Worthy of note is that China’s economic strength means it will handle sanctions better than Russia. Yet, it will be better off avoiding any sanctions.
Rep. McCaul Weighs In
Texas Rep. Michael McCaul commented on the issue.
He said Russia’s disappointing performance in Ukraine would deter China from attacking Taiwan in the nearest future. McCaul noted the economic sanctions on Russia are another good reason China won’t make a move on Taiwan.
In addition, McCaul said China wouldn’t want to be linked with Russia and Putin at the moment, as the sanctions are tightening its grip on the country.
“Russia’s military might not be as strong as we all imagined. Ukraine is putting up heavy resistance and recording significant victories,” he said.
“The results mean China’s President Xi Jinping will be back to the drawing board to plot the best course of action.”
When Russian forces went into Ukraine, concern grew in Taiwan that an attack by China could be next. But how difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) April 4, 2022
However, McCaul was quick to add that China will be more difficult for NATO and the United States than Russia.
He noted the US’ supply chains are tied to China. Not only that, but China also has the digital yuan, which could be a cryptocurrency, thereby making it easy for the country to escape sanctions.
The Texas’ lawmaker noted that if the US, NATO, and its European allies stand up to China, it will send a powerful message.
The truth of the matter is that Xi Jinping still wants Taiwan. Yet, the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war will be a major determinant in his next course of action.
However, as things stand, it is unlikely that Xi would make a move on Taiwan, as his ally, Putin, struggles in his quest in Ukraine.