Whatever analysts predict about fall campaigns, something new usually arises.
The draft Supreme Court abortion ruling leaked. While most observers expected this, the ultimate decision’s scope and publication date remain unknown.
While the leaked court draft does not represent the Supreme Court's ruling in its final form; nevertheless, it contradicts this church's teaching. This church teaches that abortion and reproductive health care, including contraception, must be legal and accessible.
— Bishop Eaton (@ELCABishopEaton) May 17, 2022
The key for political strategists is how swing voters react. Will this be THE issue that decides their fate? Will it be another issue upsetting the American status quo?
Historically, the president’s party loses 26 House seats in the first midterm election.
Biden’s Popularity
Biden’s popularity rating has fallen as fast as petrol and food costs rise.
Gallup gives him 41.3% approval, six points worse than Barack Obama at the same stage in his administration and virtually on pace with Jimmy Carter. Over two-thirds of Americans think our country is off course.
While some surveys suggest an increase in abortion as an issue, Americans remain focused on their living costs, public security, the economy, and border protection.
They also have concerns about international war drums, supply chain concerns, and more. Baby formula is in short supply, as well.
We can say Democrats face a gloomy election. 33 House Democrats, the highest since 1992, are not seeking reelection.
Midterm Election, Most House Seats Lost by President's Party in Power
2010 Obama: -63
1994 Clinton: -52
1958: Eisenhower: -48
1974 Ford (Nixon): -48
1966 Johnson: -47
1946 Truman: -45
2006 Bush: -30
1950 Truman: -29
1982 Reagan: -26
2018 Trump: -26*NY Times data since 1946
— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) November 7, 2018
2010 and 2022 are similar, but not identical.
Republicans had 208 seats after gaining 13 in the past election (plus five GOP vacancies). They had 178 seats in 2010. Redistricting reduced this cycle’s battlefield to 31 seats.
Biden’s disapproval points to GOP victories. In 22 years, more migrants have crossed the southern border. Inflation is at a 40-year high and gas prices are expensive.
Americans want to send a statement to Washington by electing House Republicans. The Biden administration’s leftist agenda is boosting living costs.
This summer, Republicans will release a complete plan to increase domestic power production to lower gas prices, keep inflation in check by saying no to wasteful spending, and protect America’s border.
Worse Now Than Two Years Ago
Biden defended inflation and fuel prices by blaming the epidemic and Russia’s invasion. Voters don’t care who wins; they’re worse off than two years ago.
They believe the Biden presidency exacerbated, rather than resolved, issues. Voters are aware of this when they fuel up, pay bills, and shop.
The year before, a former Obama administration analyst warned the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 budget proposal might cause an inflationary avalanche. Despite official protestations, he was correct.
Record gas prices are another example of Democrats worsening a problem. Biden made life difficult for U.S. energy firms.
He pushed foreign countries to raise oil output, despite the administration’s calling it “Putin’s price spike” and liberals blaming energy corporations.
Republicans’ energy policy — taking down cumbersome restrictions and unleashing innovation — cuts prices and global emissions. It boosts both while financing our geopolitical adversaries.
Many voters are weary of Biden’s programs, which boosted inflation and oil prices. This autumn might be like 2010 when voters slammed House Democrats for Obama’s programs.
Biden’s unpopularity increases the probability that a Republican House majority might stop his liberal government from harming the economy and national security.
Voters whose incomes can’t keep up with soaring expenditures can’t wait for November 8 to come.
