Top Republicans fear Donald Trump might declare a 2024 candidacy before November, distracting supporters from President Biden’s management and energizing Democratic participation.
A few Republican analysts and party insiders are worried Trump may run for the presidency before the midterms to eliminate GOP challengers.
They fear the decision will turn a vote on Biden into a more fair and balanced debate between the president and his divisive predecessor.
Not Going to Make Biden’s Leadership Look Better
Trump’s direct infusion into the midterm race won’t make Biden a famous leader or make 2022 a Democratic year.
Republicans fear the 45th president’s early campaign would dilute the GOP message on Biden and enhance Democratic fervor, diminishing the red wave and tempering GOP victories in the House and Senate.
TRUMP OR DESANTIS?: Bill Maher reveals who he’d rather have as president in 2024 https://t.co/waILEOyQrx
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 18, 2022
A Republican consultant in Austin, Texas predicted Trump’s prominence might cost the GOP five House seats. The Senate might end up 50/50, depending on the seats.
NBC News reported last month that Trump was considering a 2024 run. Democrats and Republicans who want to run for president typically wait until after the midterms to start their campaigns.
The former president is thinking about making an announcement early so he can stay ahead of the other Republican candidates.
TRUMP 2024 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 pic.twitter.com/xQQmJU5QE0
— Timothy (@whitetiger0203) June 16, 2022
Trump would have challenges in the 2024 Republican race, despite his popularity.
The former Vice President of the country Mike Pence, State Mike Pompeo, the erstwhile secretary of state, and Sen. Tom Cotton are visiting early primary states and making moves to build White House campaigns.
Trump running for the presidency isn’t a problem for Republican lawmakers and operatives focused on the current race.
They want a clear shot at Biden and congressional Democrats to secure the governing majority. Democrats hold a five-seat majority in the House. Their Senate edge is Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.
“It wouldn’t be in the president’s greatest advantage to begin his campaign so early,” a House Republican said, seeking anonymity to criticize Trump. Republicans hope a midterm triumph will delay a 2024 declaration.
“If Trump is savvy, he’ll realize that and declare victory after,” said a Republican consultant advising 2022 contenders.
“All GOP contenders would have to answer a new topic; they’d rather speak about Joe Biden,” the strategist said. “We need an election that votes on Biden’s job performance.”
Approval Ratings
With Biden’s job favorability rating at just below 40% and Republicans dominating Democrats at 46.4% to 43.5%, Republicans are poised for substantial gains this fall in Congress and state and local elections.
In discussions with more than a dozen seasoned Republican insiders, none expected Trump’s presidential announcement to change this positive mood.
Some Republicans fear Trump’s behavior will reduce their chances of midterm election success. Still, others aren’t persuaded it will matter, given voter sentiments toward Biden and the Democratic establishment in Washington.
They claimed Trump beginning a 2024 campaign this summer wouldn’t help Biden’s numbers. They said that it wouldn’t make it hard for GOP candidates to raise money for the midterm elections.
“I’d wish he’d wait and not muck up what will be a terrific year for Republicans.”
“If Biden’s ratings stay where they are and the price of gas and inflation become worse, I don’t believe Trump interjecting hurts as much as some may think,” a Republican consultant in a western swing state said.
Trump’s spokesperson didn’t comment.
